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Joshua Woodmansee
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forecast discussion
Good Sunday evening!
Hope you are holding out well after Friday’s cold front, which ushered in another taste of winter before we transition into warmer temperatures this week. In this blog, we’ll be recapping this past interesting weekend and then summarize what to expect for the upcoming week (spoiler: a nice, warmer trend is in store this week, with only one rainy day!).
Winter returned this weekend
On Friday, a strong cold front made its way into the Mid-South, destabilizing the air and bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to the Memphis metro late Friday afternoon and evening. Severe t’storms were warned in different places across the Mid-South, but, luckily, the metro did not have much to worry about on Friday, as storms remained below severe thresholds. Mainly, strong gusts and locally heavy rain were the primary impacts on Friday for the metro.
| (Radar loop at 5:45pm on Friday, 2/16) Showers and t’storms, moving along with the passing cold front, livened up Friday evening. |
Not every place received a lot of rainfall, as evidenced by the airport and MWN stations recording less than 0.03″ of rainfall each. The heaviest rainfall in the metro occurred over north MS, due to the the front finding additional atmospheric moisture and instability. Everyone, though, immediately felt the effects of the strong cold front — temps rapidly declined into the upper 30s by Friday night. The upper 30s happened to be the highs for Saturday as well, making it the coldest day of the month to this point! A brisk wind didn’t help matters, either.
| The 24-hr temperature change map valid at 1:30pm Saturday, 2/17, showcases just how drastic the temperature difference was between Friday and Saturday afternoons. About 30° colder! (WeatherBell) |
Today, at the very least, has had highs about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday’s. The sunshine helped too, but highs were still below what is expected for late winter. All in all, the front certainly brought a temporary return to winter temperatures. Thankfully, we expect Saturday to be the coldest day of the month, since we’ll be trending warmer this upcoming week, a trend that looks to continue into the last week of the month as well.
A mostly dry and warm week ahead
In contrast to this past weekend, this week will be characterized by warmer weather and dry conditions. The main exception to dry weather will be Thursday, which will be outlined shortly. Prominent high-pressure defines Sunday and most of the early week; due to the system, dry weather persists tonight and through Wednesday.
| High pressure over the south will be influencing the early week weather, bringing warmer and drier conditions. (NWS/WPC) |
Highs return to near-normal levels on Monday (upper 50s), while Tuesday and Wednesday will continue warming up into the 60s. We still keep highs in the 60s on Thursday, but a well-defined low-pressure system leads to unsettled air that day. Scattered showers and a t’storm or two are likely during the Thursday daytime hours and into the early night. Timing is likely to be adjusted as the week progresses.
| A low-pressure system will make its way across the central U.S., leading to increased chances for rainfall on Thursday. (NWS/WPC) |
A calmer weekend (finally!)
Remember the last time we had a normal and dry weekend? It has been a while, but, thankfully, we can look forward to a calmer upcoming weekend. Models suggest clearer skies and dry conditions for the weekend, as highs trend toward the average mid-50s for most of the weekend after Thursday’s system passes. We’ll be looking forward to the upcoming weekend, but until then, check back for updated forecasts, and thanks for reading!
| Per the Euro model, Friday’s highs are trending to be in the mid-50s for the metro. (WxBell) |
Lei Naidoo
MWN Intern
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